From a purely strategic point of view, I think the Paul Ryan pick makes sense for the Republicans. If they can get the public to buy in to Paul Ryan being the ‘man with a plan’ and contrast it with the image of a do nothing congress, it might energize swing voters / Reagan democrats. He also helps bring the Tea Party back into the game.
Paul Ryan’s big claim to fame is his ‘Path to Prosperity’. The keystone of this plan is to eliminate Medicare starting in 2022. Paul Ryan’s plan keeps Medicare unchanged for existing participants – which may encourage anybody over 65 to vote for the plan if they vote based on entitlements. Maybe the assumption is the under 55 year old demographic will vote based on other issues, and not think about the on looming benefit cuts that will cost them thousands in years to come.
So if I read it right, the Republicans are going to put the Democrats on the defensive – make the Democrats get the American voters to stand up for their entitlements. This is something the Democrats have done a poor job of. It puts the focus of the campaign back on the economy, again putting the democrats on the defensive. Interestingly, this could add fuel to the fire regarding Romney’s 100 million dollar IRA. If the political discussion is about entitlements – it seems fair to focus on those who don’t need entitlements because they cheat the system.
I think this is the best strategic move the Republicans can make given all the political liabilities they have. I still don’t think they have a chance to win the election – but it does define a strategy for them to move forward with. For those of us who focus on political strategy, this is going to be a very interesting presidential campaign.
I think Ryan was a disaster pick for Republicans who wanted to win in November. This was a tea party pick that was meant to motivate fiscal conservatives. The problem is that it will turn off independents and rally previously unmotivated Democrats. Republicans in the primaries voted for Romney because he was a safe pick who could get support from Independants and some Democrats.
The Republicans will now be forced on the defensive about a SPECIFIC plan about entitlements. The economy will now be secondary to that discussion.
One of the first rules of politics is don’t be specific and that is what the Ryan plan is, a VERY specific plan and the Democrats will run a LOT of ads scaring everyone. In political advertising the truth is not as important as the message and in the past the Republicans have been VERY good about keeping a simple message that appeals to voters.
Why have the Republicans not passed the Ryan plan in a Republican controlled House? Because a lot of Republicans are scared about trying to get reelected after ‘voting against Medicare’. If Republican members of Congess are scared of the plan then Romney should have been as well.
Although Romney is probably is behind in the polls right now (and he knows it) he should have stuck with the plan and hope that the economy got worse.
Making a ‘Sarah Palin / Hail Mary’ pick was out of character and will doom him barring an unforseen circumstance.
How about a blog on sports?