So imaging what it would be like to be the head of the Republican party: its a year and a half to the presidential election, and you have no feasible candidates for the big event.
So as head of the Republican Party, what are my choices? For this analysis, lets assume both Palin and Trump are not viable candidates – they are just entertainers. And Mitt Romney is too flawed to run as a Republican in this political environment. So here are my guesses as to the 3 most interesting strategies I would evaluate:
- 1. Mike Huckabee or Michelle Bachman or other nonelectable conservative – throw party money and support at the campaign. Not too much, because I know its a lost cause. However, I am building goodwill among my base and reaffirming the appearance of having conservative values. This base building will keep my base loyal, and that will free me up to put up a less conservative candidate in the next election while still hopefully having an energized base.
- 2. Tim Pawlenty – Throw money at the Pawlenty campaign and hope that I can build a buzz and a following. Seems like a longshot, as there is nothing that really stands out about him – in the end he will likely flame out in a Dukakis like landslide.
- 3. Ron Paul – Maybe I can cut a deal with Ron Paul – promise to throw all my money into his organization, and bring him into the Republican fold. The deal would have to be he agrees to soften his position on his most outspoken Libertarian ideas, amd move to the right a bit to pick up some of religious conservatives – though the religious conservatives would have no where to go. The objective would be to bring in some Tea Partiers, and possibly also attract the moderate Reagan democrats. Also, get Paul to agree to my choice for Vice Presidential candidate. Would need someone to do the dirty work in the organization – handle the money inflows and outflows. Someone like Newt Gingrich or Haley Barbour to run the White House ala Dick Cheney.
Will be interesting to watch what happens – and what other options will unfold. Any other strategies out there? Feel free to comment.
Sorry Dan, but I am going to have to completely disagree with some basic assumptions. I don’t think the Republicans can afford to throw away this presidential election by going with Mike Huckabee, Michelle Bachman or especially Ron Paul. They have to be at least competative to keep the House and take over the Senate. They lost 3 Senate seats by running unelectable candidates and will not make that mistake in the presidential election. Assuming Jeb Bush really means it when he says he won’t run…Mitt Romney might not be able to win but with a tea partier on the ticket I think he can be competative. Right now it appears that Mitch Daniels is the best shot they have and it appears that he is going to be the choice. He already has the support of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. If I were the leader of the Republicans that is where I would put all my money. And with the support of Barbour he won’t have to bribe the tea-partiers and he can afford to make a reasonable choice for VP or a strategic pick like Rubio of Florida. Anything can happen in the next 18 months. If the economy continues to stagnate they need a candidate who won’t turn off the majority of voters.
I guess I should amend my option #2 ‘Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels or other unknown fiscal conservative’ – at any rate the strategy is the same – throw money at him, try to get a buzz going. If this is the approach they take, maybe the best strategy would probably be to do nothing til late this year or early next – several months before the primaries, then flood money into the campaign to build a buzz, and hope the buzz lasts til November. Seems a longshot – and in the end I think the center would stick with Obama over a manufactured candidate, and give Obama a landslide. Plus, Mitch Daniels doesn’t have presidential hair.
Ok, if you want to put Daniels in with your option #2 that is the option I think they will/should take. However I don’t think it will be necessarily be in vain. I think that the election really will be dependant on the economy. Regardless of the candidate the Republicans best option is continuing to hammer at ‘stop spendng money’, ‘the government is too big’. Very easy to understand for the average worker and the Democrats have shown that they are not able to articulate any benefits of spending public money for things like jobs and health care. That could be enough for a Republican candidate to pull a victory in 2012.