Time for my third annual Solar power progress report.  Overall, I saw in increase in solar production in 2017 over 2016, likely all weather related.  Below is a chart of my 3 years of production by Month:

A long stretch of sunny weather in the summer helped me beat 2016, even though the other seasons seemed cloudier than normal.

Payback Update

I had originally penciled out a 6 year payback when I made the decision to move forward with this plan.  Now that I have a better feel for my annual production, assuming the production credits stay above 40 cents thru 2023, I think I can achieve an 8 year payback, recouping by investment by the end of 2023.  Of course that 40 cent number is probably optimistic, though I am hoping the production incentive credits do get grandfathered for those of us that took the risk early.  And the fact that it seems every year I stretch my estimated payback a year, doesn’t give me a lot of confidence yet in this estimate.   At any rate, I was pleased to see no significant drop in solar power production as the panels aged a year, so that is a promising sign.

Regarding maintenance, I have settled in to a pretty comfortable schedule.  In the spring as the days start to get longer and the weather better  – usually May’ish, I give the panels a good cleaning with a sponge mop and a squeegee.  I may clean them a couple months later if we have a heavy pollen outbreak that coats the panels in pollen.  But for the most part I can occasionally just spray them with a hose from the ground.  The panels are very little maintenance in the winter, as the production is so low it doesnt really matter if they are clean or not, and we get so much heavy rain that it keeps them pretty clean.

Power Use Report

Being the power geek that I am, I also updated my power usage report for the year.  My total household usage for the year was the lowest on record (well… since 2015).  Usage was down 7% after being up 4% in 2016.  A couple theories on why.  I have continued to replace bulbs with LEDs as they burn out, we had a very moderate summer requiring very little air conditioning, and we were also out of town on vacation a few more weeks last year than previous years.  I also added more lights to my Wink Hub, which I think managed my outdoor lights more efficiently.  For 2017, I don’t have as many vacations planned, but I plan to continue adding LED lights, as well as possibly hook up my furnace to the wink hub to better manage when the heat is on.  Overall, I am guessing the vacations had the biggest impact, so I would guess my power usage for 2018 will increase slightly.

My long term plan has always been to upgrade my panels once I have my investment back.  However, if the panels continue to perform, there is likely no reason to.  Interestingly, on Amazon, the price of solar panels has not dropped over the last year, in fact they have gone up slightly.  I would look to see that change in 2018 though as there are more advanced solar panels that should be coming online this year.  On a related note, Consumer Reports did an interesting payback analysis on Tesla’s solar roof – it appeared to be pretty encouraging.

Overall, still happy with my investment, and I still think residential solar / utility scale wind and solar is the power model of the future.

It’s time for my second annual ‘Best Reads’ of the year post.  This year, since I didn’t read much, I decided to expand it to all the books I have read this year – so I am exposing how little reading I get accomplished in a given year.  These picks are ranked in favorite order, though I could be talked into the top two being a tie. So without further ado – here are my quick opinions of the books I read this year:

1.  The Pope and Mussolini:  The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe

-13%

The Pope and Mussolini: The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe

Price: $17.44

Was: $20.00

An interesting book covering the rise of Facist Dictator Mussolini from the 1920’s til his execution during WWII.  Even if you have no interest in or understanding of the Catholic Church, this book provides an interesting look at how the church saw Mussolini as a partner in helping control the populace. A worthy read.  Readers of this blog may recall that last year I promised myself I would stay away from World War II histories, but I don’t count this one, as it covers more pre-war stuff, and more focuses on the rise to power.

2.  Carthage Must Be Destroyed:  The Rise and Fall of an Ancient Civilization

-34%

Carthage Must Be Destroyed: The Rise and Fall of an Ancient Civilization

Price: $14.59

Was: $22.00

I really enjoyed this – it covered a period of time that I knew very little about – Carthage and the Roman expansion in the Mediterranean 0-300BC.  Well written and very understandable (even if everybody was named Hannibal back then..) and it provides a great understanding of the politics of the time.

3. Thomas Jefferson and the Tripoli Pirates:  The Forgotten War that Changed American History

Thomas Jefferson and the Tripoli Pirates: The Forgotten War That Changed American History

Price: $9.99

  A real quick read – a nice break from some of the longer dives into a historical period.  Interesting story about how American forefathers were no strangers to getting involved in foreign war for capitalist reasons.  A nice little intro into the Ottoman empire of the late 1700’s also.  Recommended.

4.  Liars Poker

-43%

Liar's Poker (Norton Paperback)

Price: $9.03

Was: $15.95

 I had been meaning to read this book for awhile – a lookback at the Wall Street excesses of the late 20th century.  Found it an interesting look into the culture of Wall Street then.. and likely now..  If investing isn’t your thing, this could bore you. This was the first Michael Lewis book I had read, and his style is very readable, so I will likely try another of his books in the future.

5.  Stranger in a Strange Land

-10%

Stranger in a Strange Land

Price: $8.99

Was: $9.99

 I decided to do a quick science fiction read before heading back into historical non fiction, so I chose what was considered Heinlein’s best book by a number of reviewers.  In short – this book just didn’t connect with me.  I had a hard time immersing myself in this book.  It may be characters were dated (this was written in 1961, and the characters felt to me kind of caricatures of that time), or it may be Heinlein’s writing style just didn’t agree with me.   The next time I read science fiction, I will probably try a different author, to see if this was a problem with the book or if I have just lost my ability to enjoy reading science fiction.

For 2018, I could see myself sticking exclusively to history this year, and I might sprinkle in a World War II book – old habits die hard. In case you missed last year’s reviews (and if you have read this far you may be interested) – here is my list for 2016.

A few posts ago I mentioned concern about how the transformation of retail might hurt the interesting cultural feel in Europe.  However, after reading this article about how small towns might be the savior for retail, I am a little more optimistic.

There is no question online shopping will further transform the retail shopping model for some time to come.  But maybe small towns give us an early clue to how everything will shake out.   Perhaps retail will just get more focused – not a wide variety of shopping centers spreading a feeling of ‘Generica‘ throughout the country – but a focal retail center in every town, large and small.  Perhaps each collection of retail centers will have a theme or specialty.  Strip malls will disappear, with retail clustered around core centers of small towns or neighborhoods within large cities.

This central core would have more than just retail shops.  Much like you are seeing shopping centers branch out into restaurants, gyms, and other service providers.  I think it would be much more interesting to see neighborhoods within cities have a central core of unique combination of shops, and a place that can be the central gathering place for residents in the neighborhood.  Europe has perfected this model, with the central town market square typically lined with restuarants with outdoor seating, with stores surrounding the central square.  The further you get from the central square, the more it turns residential.   We do see a flavor of this today in some neighborhoods (i.e. Fremont in Seattle) – perhaps the future looks like a lot more small funky neighborhoods and fewer strip malls and big box stores.

As our society becomes more virtually connected and physically isolated, a changing retail model might be the solution to bringing back a feeling of a physical community.   The next waves of technology will be bringing even more social upheaval – perhaps those surviving physical retail stores will evolve and thrive in the coming new world.

I recently spent a couple weeks on my first trip to the Netherlands, and thought I would share some random observations.  I spent a week in Einhoven,  a couple days in Delft, and a few days in Haarlem, and I feel I got an interesting immersion into Dutch culture.  The Netherlands wasn’t at the tops of my list of places to go, but circumstances happened that I got to spend time here.  As with all my trips to Europe, I enjoy the cultural differences I get when I leave the United States.  So here are some random observations, in no particular order.

1.  It constantly amazes me how easily Europeans switch between languages.  Often when someone initiated a conversation with me – they would fire off a dutch phrase that to me sounded like garbled German.  I speak a little German, but I had a real hard time understanding Dutch.  At any rate, as soon as I said ‘spreekt oo Engels’ they fire off the same phrase in (usually) flawless English.  As a person who only speaks one language fluently -but as a software developer who can write in many languages, I am always impressed at how their mind can so easily shift gears.
2. The bike culture in the Netherlands is fantastic.  As an avid American bicyclist, I am jealous at how they have built their infrastructure around biking.  Everywhere I went were bike lanes, and I made a point of renting a bike whenever possible to see the sights.  None of the bikes people use are fancy – just very utilitarian.   Only the occasional bike racers wore helmets, the rest of the people just casually ride without them.
3. I saw little trace of homelessness.  I think Europe is dealing with the situation much better than the crisis we face in the United States.  There are a lot more public workers doing jobs that you don’t see often in the US – i.e workers repairing bricks in town squares,  street cleaners walking around picking up trash, people wiping down walls and floors throughout the train stations.  Perhaps the US could follow Europe’s lead in helping mobilize some entry level jobs for the surplus of untrained labor.
4. With the rise in online retailers, I have been paying close attention to the demise of mall traffic in the US.  So I was curious to see how online retailing will impact Europe.  It seems to me that retail in the Netherlands is more scattered  – every small town seems to have a market square, but radiating for blocks around that you still see little shops of clothing and various other retailers.  I don’t see how these little shops will stay in business if Europe is hit with the mass exodus to online shopping like the US.  I saw some delivery trucks making the rounds, but online shopping does not appear to be as pervasive as in the US.  It would be tragic to see these small towns turn into shells half empty shops.
5. It took me a bit to get used to the public dress code in the Netherlands.  The first day it hit the upper 60’s here in the Netherlands, I put on a pair of shorts and hit the sights.  Umm…. I was the only person in shorts and I stood out like the tourist I am.  Everybody else was wearing jeans and long sleeves and a jacket.  The next day was a little warmer – low 70’s and humid, and I wore long pants and a sweatshirt, and I fit in fine.  Everybody was still wearing leather jackets and jeans ..  and I was overheating.. but looking good.  Part of this could be the mobility issue – we here often throw a jacket in the car for if it cools down later – I guess if you are on a bike it may be just easier to wear it.
6. I took a lot of trains in my various travels through Dutch towns, and once you get the hang of it it is a pretty efficient way to travel.  Most of my trips required changing trains to get to my destination, but because the network is so laid out and the trains are pretty exact on their schedule, I rarely had problems.  Most rail station had a place where you could rent a bike to continue your travels for the last leg, which makes for an interesting hub and spoke system of travel.

I had many other various observations but will leave it here for now.  It is always enriching to travel to foreign destinations to see how cultures have evolved in different small ways.  Now back in America, it causes me to notice little idiosyncrasies that are uniquely American.   In an increasing globalized world, I hope these cultural differences can remain, and that each culture retains its own unique little ways of doing things.

I was in a discussion with a family member who was heading for vacation, and he asked me if I had any reading recommendations.  Most years I rarely get through more than a book or two, but this year for some reason I plowed through a bunch of books.  I typically read histories and biographies, yet sprinkle in a little popular fiction when I want to give my mind a rest.

So since my year has been so productive, I decided I better put together a ‘best of list’ of the stuff I read this year.   Since the fiction I read is just pop culture stuff, and usually pretty old, I didn’t include it.  So I decided to limit it to history this year.

So, without further ado, here is my list of favorite history books I read this year.

 1.  Astoria: John Jacob Astor and Thomas Jefferson’s Lost Pacific Empire: A Story of Wealth, Ambition, and Survival

We all know about Lewis and Clark, and their exploration to the Pacific.  Soon after Lewis and Clark, in the early 1800’s, John Jacob Astor saw the business opportunity of this unexplored land and tried to build a huge monopoly in fur trading.    Even though I have grown up in the Pacific Northwest and traveled extensively around this region, I wasn’t aware of this interesting story.  As I sit here during a dreary December Day, I can only imagine the mental struggles this party went through.  In addition to a great adventure story, an interesting business angle too.

2. D Day Through German Eyes

A short book – only 140 pages – so it is a quick about the German soldiers stationed on the French coast on D-Day.  As part of a German propaganda effort the author interviewed a number of soldiers prior to the invasion gathering patriotic stories.  The author then tried to track down a number of these soldiers after the war to hear their story of what happened to them the day of the invasion.  An angle on WW2 you don’t often hear, and you realize how tragic the war was for everybody involved.

3. Dreadnought: Britain, Germany, and the Coming of the Great War

4. In the Garden of Beasts: Love, Terror, and an American Family in Hitler’s Berlin

A while back, I saw a tweet from Elon Musk recommending the reading of the book ‘The Machine Stopped’, and was curious as I thought I was somewhat up on historical science fiction.  You can access a public domain copy of the book here:

http://archive.ncsa.illinois.edu/prajlich/forster.html

Considering this book was written in 1909, the vision of the future by the author is pretty good.  Television, public air travel, the internet(?) all pretty well envisioned.  This is definitely worth a quick skim.

I know America doesn’t have the money to waste on art projects (we need to keep adding to that defense budget) – but Iceland is providing a great example of alternative ways of spending money other than on a bloated defense budget.

Take an existing eyesore, add some ingenuity, and you get a piece of art:

A great overview of the project here – the Choi+Shine architecture firm is responsible for this – but give Iceland kudos for spending a little more money on this project to provide something special.

I had chance to pull the stats from the solar panels I installed in mid-January 2015  (more details here) – and there is some good news and bad news.

1.  The good news:  My total power production for the year (from mid-January on)   was 4005.5 kilowatts.  We had a pretty optimal year for solar – lots of sunny days in the summer long days, and a rainy winter when solar production is pretty much a non-issue.   My solar contractor who installed the system gave me a solar power production prediction before the install, and they estimated first year power production of 3886 kilowatts – which I beat by 3.1%.  So they were pretty darn accurate.
2. The bad news:  Solar power incentives will be dropping in 2016.  Much of my payback analysis was based on the Washington State incentive structure providing 54 cents per kilowatt – the projected 2016 incentives as shown here  show a much lower incentive rate.  This will stretch out my payback – and it will be interesting to see what impact this will have for the expansion of solar in the Northwest.  At the predicted incentive rates, new installations would have a much increased payback period.  Having said that, I don’t regret the decision.  Much of the cost of the system install was for the production meter installation – setting me up for future expansion of panels or replacement of existing panels with more efficient ones.  I still envision the day when panels will be low cost, but the cost of retrofitting houses to produce power will not be going down.

If you are planning a trip to the Pacific Northwest – further proof that summer is the time to visit.  Surprisingly, we had a nice June in 2015 – combine that with the summer solstice and June was my best month for Production:

I would of expected some July days to be in there in normal years – but we had an exceptionally nice June.  As far as my worst days – December 2015 was the 2nd rainiest month in Seattle history, and my numbers reflect that:

To be fair I do have some tree issues which greatly reduce my production in winter – but if you are planning on visiting in December you can likely leave the sunscreen at home (My top power day in December was 3.55 kilowatts on 12/31).

My total power consumption for the year was 8055 kilowatts, so I produced approximately 50% of the electricity I used for the year.  I will be watching this trend over the years- in theory as lighting gets more efficient and panels get more efficient – I should be able to raise that percentage.

So my first year is in the books and I consider it a moderate success.  If you are planning on a solar install in the Pacific Northwest – and have any questions or comments – please feel free to add a comment below.

I will admit I hadn’t tied the whole Russell Wilson contract negotiations and this baseball sideline thing until I read this article about baseball not being a ‘ploy’.

This is setting up to be an interesting face-off between the Seattle Seahawks and Wilson.  Wilson goes into the 2015 season in the last year of his rookie contract – set to be paid a paltry 1.5 million  in 2015.  He is in renegotiation talks to redo his contract this year, at upwards of 20 million plus per year for several years.

All things being equal, it would make perfect sense for the Seahawks to not renegotiate his contract, make him play at 1.5 million, then franchise him next year for 20+ million,  then redo his contract.  This would effectively be paying him 10 million a year over two years, at a time where the Seahawks are hot and could spend that money elsewhere to continue their championship run.

Russell Wilson must be able to see this scenario – hence the renewed interest in baseball.  If Russell Wilson had a reasonable chance to get called up to play for the Texas Rangers in September, and gets paid say $500,000 – why wouldn’t he do that, and tell the Seahawks he plans to sit out the last year of his contract?  The notoriety he would gain from this in endorsements would more than offset any financial loss he would incur.  The Rangers would also be  incented to bring him to the league, as that would be a great marketing tool to bring fans to the ballpark in September.

So I think this is going to be an interesting story that will unfold in the next few months.   Rumor has it that the contract negotiations are at an impasse – I think Russell Wilson is smart to try force the Seahawks to ‘show him the money’ – and I think it will work.  This baseball ‘ploy’  may be worth millions for Wilson to play baseball in 2015, and give him the leverage he needs to get his contract rewritten.

Note:  I occasionally cant help myself and venture into sports topics – but for more sports blog commentary be sure and visit http://badboys.vfsystems.net/

I was amused when I saw the ‘curious’ call in the Dallas – Detroit NFL playoff game that has garnered so much attention.

It seems to me faceguarding a player is one of the standard pass interference calls  to be made, and this looked like a textbook example.  So it was odd that even after the flag is thrown and the penalty is announced, the call gets reversed.

This article has a good recap of the events in case you missed it.   This play seemed to me the biggest playoff robbery since the mysterious interception that was overturned in the 2006 Pittsburgh – Indianapolis playoff game.   Interestingly enough, both of these legendary calls were made by Referee Pete Morelli.  This from 2006:

The league acknowledged Monday that referee Pete Morelli erred when he overturned on replay Polamalu’s interception of a Peyton Manning pass Sunday in the playoff game between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis.

That puts it mildly – that 2006 reversal was the worst call reversal I have ever seen.  So it interesting that Pete Morelli and his officiating crew  is in this latest controversy.  Its not like his calls have gone unnoticed over the years.  I stumbled across this article by a fan who did a review back in 2006 of games that Morelli has officiated, and the results weren’t flattering.

This excerpt from the 2006 review of Morelli’s crew:

Based on my grades this crew got two lukewarm passes and a failure. If I was a coach preparing for this crew, I would expect an even game called on the offensive line, I wouldn’t expect to be able to get a cheap pass interference call on a deep ball, I would expect some type of replay screwup, and I would be wary of having a penalty called on my team at a critical fourth quarter moment.

This officiating crew is not the best the NFL has. So why does the NFL continue to choose this crew for playoff games?    Perhaps they are taking a queue from Reality TV.  Fans of reality TV know that the shows are edited to build the best story line and build characters – they are not edited to provide a even handed journal of events.    The NFL is at the height of its popularity, so the NFL must be doing something right.   And the Dallas Cowboys – America’s Team  – is headed to the next round of the playoffs.